Analysts: Carter To Focus on Threats, Hill

WASHINGTON — Key defense-minded lawmakers are hopeful the incoming defense secretary will force Pentagon reforms, but analysts say domestic politics and crises abroad will dominate his tenure.

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., took to the Senate floor on Feb. 13 before the chamber confirmed Ashton Carter, 95-3, to say he expects Carter will be frozen out of most major national security and foreign policy decisions.

Still, McCain believes Carter will be granted freedom by the White House to manage to the Pentagon. And in his signature fashion, McCain has a few goals for an inward-focused Secretary Carter.

"I am hopeful about the prospects of working together with Dr. Carter, along with my colleagues in the Committee on Armed Services, to achieve our shared priorities, especially the reform of our defense acquisition system, the modernization of our military compensation system, and the repeal of sequestration," McCain said.

During his Feb. 4 confirmation hearing before McCain's committee, Carter made it clear he wants to focus on all of those issues.

The incoming defense secretary also, however, spent lots of time discussing emerging threats like the Islamic State group and old ones like Russia and al-Qaida. Add to the list an expressed desire to push US lawmakers to help the Pentagon out by lessening or axing the remaining sequester budget cuts.

Analysts appearing on an episode of the "Defense News with Vago Muradian" TV show to air Feb. 15 say that when a Cabinet secretary's plate is that full, something, by necessity, will have to go.

"But will he have time?" Mackenzie Eaglen of the American Enterprise Institute asked on the Feb. 15 episode of the "Defense News with Vago Muradian" TVtelevision show, to air Feb. 15.

Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute said Carter will be a "fleeting secretary."

"One thing we know for sure about Ash Carter's tenure as defense secretary is that it will be fleeting," Thompson said. "Whatever plans he may have for spurring innovation or reforming processes, the reality is that his schedule will probably be captured by bigger issues such as [the Islamic State group] and Ukraine."

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But securing the kind of broader fiscal deal that would address tethered defense and domestic spending has eluded his three predecessors.

And if Carter wades in too deeply, it could eat up a ton of his time in office. But some key members want him to do just that.

"In the current budget and political environment, this job will not be easy," House Armed Services Committee Ranking Member Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., said in a Feb. 12 statement. "It is my hope that Ash Carter will be able to convince Congress to do away with sequestration."

Email: jbennett@defensenews.com

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