ABU DHABI and TEL AVIV — The continued shifting of the political sands in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian Authority, greater industrial development among the Arabian Gulf states and an Israel always preparing for the next possible conflict will help shape 2015's outlook in the Middle East.

More collaboration is seen among gulf states both through Emirates Defense Industries Co. (EDIC) and a new Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) military command. Israel will see a new defense chief while national elections also are scheduled for March, and the presidents of Egypt and the Palestinian Authority continue to consolidate power while pursuing their agendas.

GULF NATIONS

Region: Expect a big showing by Emirates Defense Industries Co. at February's International Defence Exhibition 2015 in Abu Dhabi. EDIC will comprise 11 companies from the subsidiaries of Abu Dhabi government-owned Mubadala Development Co., Tawazun Holding and Emirates Advanced Investment and serve as the GCC's first national military industrial complex.

Unified GCC Command: The new Gulf Cooperation Council military command will rapidly take shape following December's summit in Doha. The bloc also wants to set up a joint naval force that the Saudis have stated will be 100,000 strong. US President Barack Obama has cleared foreign military sales for the command.


C4ISR in the Gulf: UAE's agreement to acquire French Falcon Eye spy satellites has strengthened its position as a supplier of C4 capabilities to GCC countries. Once launched in 2018, the UAE plans to have seven satellites in orbit for commercial and military use.

Saudi National Guard: As the second son of the king, Prince Miteb bin Abdullah is expected to be announced as the heir apparent to the Saudi throne. His current role as chief of the National Guard, a position which only his father held previously, and the rapid modernization under his leadership are signs of his ascension within the ranks of the House of Saud, overtaking his older brother.

EDIC Board Chairman: Homaid al-Shemmari is expected to present the new Emirates Defense Industries Co. as a global player in 2015 and establish a global footprint for the United Arab Emirates in the defense industry.

ISRAEL

Prime Minister: If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — the frontrunner in national elections set for March 17 — is re-elected, look for him to form a right-of-center coalition government more likely to clash with the United States, Europe and other world powers on issues of Jewish settlement, Palestinian statehood and a P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran.

Chief of Staff: Lt. Gen.-designate Gadi Eisenkot will succeed Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz as chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in February. Eisenkot was director of operations during Israel's 2006 Lebanon War before assuming command of Israel's northern front. Expect him and IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Yair Golan to urge punishing responses if threatened by Hezbollah, Syrian regime forces or Islamic jihadists.

Missile Defense: Israel plans to deploy David's Sling, its newest layer of active defense, in the first months of 2015. Developed by state-owned Rafael and US partner Raytheon, David's Sling will be sandwiched between upper layers defended by Arrow and the lower-tier Iron Dome.

Israel Military Industries: Israel's Government Companies Authority is readying an early 2015 request for proposals for foreign investors interested in acquiring up to 90 percent equity in the nation's oldest defense firm. Aside from critical propulsion technologies, which will transfer to a new Defense Ministry-owned firm, IMI, valued at about $500 million, will be sold as a single package.

Spy Satellite: Israel plans to launch its newest spy satellite, Ofek 11, this year. Built by Israel Aerospace Industries, the low-Earth orbiting satellite will feature a high-resolution imaging payload.

EGYPT

President: Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, despite extreme limitations on free speech and ongoing abuses of human rights, is effectively containing radical Islam and controlling its borders with Israel and Gaza. He will play a key stabilizing role if Israel launches another military operation against Hamas in Gaza.

PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY

President: Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is steadily amassing support for Palestinian statehood throughout Europe, Latin America and elsewhere despite intensified Israeli efforts to discredit him. Expect him to remain committed to nonviolent resistance and retain the allegiance of his US-funded, Jordanian-trained Security Forces even as his popularity in the West Bank and East Jerusalem starts to wane. ■

Email: amustafa@defensenews.com, bopallrome@defensenews.com.

About and Barbara Opall-Rome

Awad Mustafa was a Middle East and Africa correspondent for Defense News.

Opall-Rome is Israel bureau chief for Defense News. She has been covering U.S.-Israel strategic cooperation, Mideast security and missile defense since May 1988. She lives north of Tel Aviv. Visit her website at www.opall-rome.com.

Share:
More In Budget